Everybody Panic: The Coming Housing Shortage

By Alyssa Katz Feb 25th 2010 @ 9:15AM

The U.S. has a real estate problem. It appears we don't have enough homes to put a roof over everyone's heads.

Say what?

That's the warning from housing economist David Crowe, who projects that the number of homes now being built – on pace toward 591,000 homes and 87,000 rental apartments in 2010 -- isn't enough to keep up with an ever-rising American population. He says that the nation will need to build 16 million new homes over the next decade, or more than twice as many as are coming online now, to keep up with demand. Crowe hints that he's not alone in his concern: "Economists are beginning to sound the warning that today's extremely low levels of new residential production could lead to significant housing shortages."

Now, take this with a grain of salt. David Crowe is the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders, so part of his job is to inspire fear in the hearts of Congress and government officials across the land to do what's necessary to support residential construction, including propping up the comatose Wall Street market in real estate finance.


As I reported in Rented Spaces recently, vacancy rates have hit record highs in many cities. This week, the blog Calculated Risk pointed out that "the supply of rental units has been surging" (check out this chart to see just how much). Right now the Census counts more than one in every ten rental units as vacant. Add in empty homes for sale and those that are just sitting there collecting tax bills, and it adds up to 14.2 million vacant homes in all. That's a long way toward the magic 16 million number.

And meanwhile, Crowe is understandably alarmed about the record low number of home sales reported this January.

Read more...
http://www.housingwatch.com/2010/02/25/everybody-panic-the-coming-housing-shortage/?icid=main|main|dl4|link3|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.housingwatch.com%2F2010%2F02%2F25%2Feverybody-panic-the-coming-housing-shortage%2F

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God Bless,

Don

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